Since Brexit, Dutch goods exports to the United Kingdom have taken a major hit.
Re-exports and quasi-transit trade in particular are the big losers in this changed trade relationship, according to new figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published in the report 'Netherlands Trading Country 2024'. Although the export of Dutch-made goods to the UK has increased, this increase lags far behind the growth of exports to other countries, both within and outside the European Union.
The decline in re-exports is striking. While the Netherlands saw an 2020 percent increase in re-exports to all countries between 2023 and 83, exports to the UK lagged far behind. In 2020, the year in which Brexit was officially completed, re-exports of goods to the UK were already three percent below the level of 2015, the year in which the Brexit referendum was held. This trend continued, as no improvement was visible in 2023 either, despite high inflation that would normally lead to higher export values.
electronics
A good example of this lagging re-export is electronics such as telephones, modems and routers. While the Netherlands still sent considerable quantities of these products to the UK via re-export in 2015, the export of these products will have almost halved in 2023. A possible explanation for this is that these goods are now transported directly from Asian countries such as China to the UK, which means that the Netherlands has lost an important transit point. Other important re-exported products such as medical instruments and devices, and medical articles such as pacemakers and implants, on the other hand, show a more stable picture. The export value of these product groups in 2023 is almost the same as in 2015.
In addition to re-exports, the quasi-transit trade of goods to the UK has also fallen sharply. In 2023, the value of this transit trade had more than halved compared to 2015. The Netherlands plays a logistical role in quasi-transit, with goods being temporarily stored via the Netherlands and then forwarded to the UK. The sharp decline in this trade flow indicates that since Brexit, the UK has been importing more products directly, without the intervention of the Dutch logistics sector. This loss is particularly poignant, given that the total quasi-transit trade to other countries has actually increased by 65 percent in the same period.
lagging growth
Although re-export and quasi-transit are lagging behind, exports of Dutch products offer a bright spot. The value of these exports increased by 2015 percent between 2023 and 38, from 18,9 billion euros to 26,1 billion euros. However, here too, growth is lagging behind, because the total export of Dutch products to all countries increased by 57 percent in the same period. Even within the European Union, where there are no Brexit problems, exports increased to this extent. These figures emphasise that the trade relationship with the UK, despite the increase in absolute numbers, is growing much more slowly than that with other markets.
One of the few sectors where the Netherlands still earns a lot from the UK is the export of refined petroleum products. This is the largest product group in terms of export value. Where the Netherlands exported 2015 billion euros worth of oil products to the UK in 1,1, that amount had increased to 2023 billion euros in 3,9. However, this increase is mainly due to higher prices, not to a larger volume. The demand for oil products from the UK therefore remains, but with the increasing focus on sustainability and the energy transition, it is questionable how long this source of income will continue.
flowers and plants
In addition to petroleum products, flowers and plants, vegetables and roots important export products for the Netherlands. These product groups were already major players in exports to the UK in 2015 and that will not have changed in 2023. However, the ceiling also seems to be in sight in these sectors, given the increasing pressure from both environmental regulations and rising costs for transport and logistics, which have become more complex since Brexit due to new customs regulations and controls.
The figures clearly show that Brexit has had a lasting impact on Dutch exports to the United Kingdom. Re-exports and quasi-transit have taken a big hit, and even the export of Dutch products is growing less strongly than to other markets. Although the Netherlands still exports important goods such as oil, flowers and vegetables to the UK, it is clear that trade with the British has become much more difficult since Brexit.
Source: CBS
