While the Greenpeace report paints a worrying picture, automakers' plans to switch to more EVs and hybrid vehicles are likely to evolve in the years leading up to the new rules.
Several of the world's largest automakers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Co., are unlikely to meet new U.S. greenhouse gas emissions targets by 2032, according to a Greenpeace analysis. This indicates that they need to accelerate their adoption of electric vehicles to avoid fines.
The report shows that carbon dioxide emissions from the tailpipes of the seven largest U.S. automakers are on track to exceed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards by between 8% and 154%, depending on the manufacturer. even if the companies meet their current electric vehicle sales forecasts.
In addition to Toyota and GM, the report also covers Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., Stellantis NV, and Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp., which are considered one entity.
The Greenpeace report calls on companies to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles worldwide by 2030, but automakers may struggle to do so amid a slowdown in demand for electric vehicles. This goal may prove even more difficult for Japanese automakers, who are lagging behind their competitors in the adoption of electric powertrains.
GM is the latest in line to adjust its expectations for the EV program. CEO Mary Barra told CNBC at an event Monday that the company won't have the manufacturing capacity to reach its previous goal of building 1 million EVs by the end of next year. Customer demand will determine how quickly the company will reach the million mark for EV sales, she added.
In response to the Greenpeace report, GM said it “supports the goals of EPA's support for the final rule and that the intent is to significantly reduce emissions. While challenging, we believe our commitments and investments in an all-electric future place GM in an excellent position to contribute to the goals of the final rule.”
The Biden administration announced new standards in March requiring automakers to limit their average tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions to below 85 grams per mile by 2032, from an average of 320 grams per mile by 2023. According to one scenario from the EPA modeling automakers could meet the demands by increasing the share of battery-electric vehicles to 56% of total U.S. sales, with plug-in hybrids and conventional combustion engine cars making up 13% and 29% of sales, respectively.
Automakers with strong electric vehicle sales plans in the US, such as Honda, GM and Ford, are expected to come closest to meeting emissions standards, exceeding them by between 8% and 12% if they meet their sales targets, according to Greenpeace .
“We have been a leader in working with the EPA and other stakeholders to develop smart, achievable carbon emissions standards and we are committed to meeting them. For competitive reasons, we cannot provide details on how we will do this in the coming years,” Ford said in an emailed response.
Toyota and Nissan have the most work to do to achieve the 2032 goals, according to the Greenpeace report. Toyota will exceed targets by 154%, while Nissan will be 76% above the limit. Toyota aims to increase its sales of battery-electric vehicles to 2030 million by 3,5. The world's largest car manufacturer sold 104.000 EVs last year.
